Election 2012 in Armenia: Political Lineup Of Forces Depends on Second President's Participation

Although the next parliamentary elections in Armenia are scheduled for 2012, electoral fermentations in the country have already begun and the main intrigue is whether the second president, Robert Kocharyan, is going to take a part in the process.

Independent political experts call Armenia's political structure as "a configuration of the three presidents."

The first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan lead the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC), the third, now the incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan is the leader of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA). The second president, Kocharyan, has not announced his participation in the elections, but speculation of his doing so has already added another dynamic.

"In the actions of the [government coalition member] Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) there is a certain reticence, which gives rise to various speculations. If PAP has a leader who can lead the election campaign and achieve '50 percent plus one vote', then they must declare it publicly, today, without delay," said deputy chairman of the Republican Party Razmik Zohrabyan recently.

Zohrabyan apparently meant Kocharyan in his comments as PAP is said to be the former president's brainchild. It is believed that if Kocharyan heads the PAP party the step will completely change the lineup of forces on Armenia's political arena.

PAP members in parliament have already declared their intentions to get actively engaged in party work. Moreover, a party which is now in the ruling coalition, has said it will initiate a reform of the electoral legislation and says the aim is to prevent rigging and fraud and that elections should be held in a transparent manner.

Secretary of the PAP parliamentary faction Aram Safaryan said that the fierce competition at the level of local party cells between PAP and RPA is transgressing all boundaries of fair play. Because, he said, those at the "bottom" do not agree with the policy of those on the "top."

Besides, there are assumptions that Kocharyan's possible bid would also be supported by the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), which excludes any cooperation with ANC.

Kocharyan still keeps silent, apparently waiting for a convenient moment for his bid to return to major-league politics. His silence, meanwhile, brings in an element of nervousness and uncertainty into the political struggle as political forces seem to be unable to determine who their main opponents are.

Armenian News